UK intelligence warns biodiversity collapse threatens national security

UK government intelligence chiefs warn that national security is at stake due to biodiversity collapse. The destruction of rainforests and the drying up of rivers will bring mass migration, food shortages, price rises, and global disorder. Climate scientists have reached similar conclusions previously, but now a report from the Joint Intelligence Committee is warning the government about these threats.

According to the report, which was published after the think tank Green Alliance submitted a Freedom of Information Request, the effects of a biodiversity collapse are already being felt. Some vital ecosystems could face collapse within five years, threatening the UK’s national security and prosperity, The Guardian reports. Many of the impacts are already being felt in the form of crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. These will intensify, resulting in ‘geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources’.

Lack of national resilience

National security experts have stepped up their warnings that the climate crisis will bring existential dangers for which the UK is still unprepared. A former senior military commander Richard Nugee said in The Guardian: “When risks are systemic, unavoidable and already unfolding, there is a duty to build national resilience and preparedness, which depend on understanding and honesty.”

Military intelligence used

It is unusual to use military intelligence techniques to examine the biodiversity crisis unfolding across the world. ‘Critical ecosystems that support major food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security’, the report says. The authors identify key hotspots that are under increasing threat as particularly significant for the UK, such as the Amazon and Congo rainforests, boreal forests, the Himalayas and south-east Asia’s coral reefs and mangroves. Some of these, including coral reefs and boreal forests, are likely to start to collapse from 2030, while the others could take up to 2050, the report found. Some scientists have warned that the Amazon is already showing signs of shifting faster than expected.

Investments to be cut

According to The Guardian, ministers are debating how much the UK should spend assisting poor countries to cope with the climate crisis and stem the decline of nature, when the current pledge of £11.6bn to be spent from 2021 to 2026 runs out. Insiders have suggested to The Guardian that the amount is likely to be cut substantially and that the funding of nature projects could end.

Safeguarding food security

The report also says the UK must focus on its own food systems, which are highly reliant on imports, because without strong action ‘it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food’.